Trader Mike's Notes
This stock pops up on my radar a lot. I've traded it 3 times over the years, with 2 winners and 1 loser. That's not surprising to me looking back at the chart -- it just doesn't trend very well. There are a few huge gaps followed by weeks of sideways trading or slow drips back to fill the gap. I've decided this is one I just won't trade. Too bad I didn't buy it in my long term account when I first traded it at 26 in June of 2016. Oh well.
If I was a true believer in this company (I'm not, I know nothing about it) I'd give this a shot on the long side here. It looks to me to be turning the corner. It had a good initial post-earnings reaction but got crushed at its 200-day moving average. It's now trying to bounce off the 50 DMA... but here's where the true believer part comes in. When the 200 is above the 50 DMA I consider the area between those two lines to be "no man's land". By definition it's long(er) term bearish and short(er) or intermediate term bullish. There are easier trades to take, IMHO.
Here's an interesting recent tech IPO that broke out of a Bollinger Band Squeeze today. The company reports earnings on the 28th though so it could be dangerous to get in and hold through that report.
Some wild action in this after falling on earnings and then rallying on the release of its Fortnite killer/competitor. It appears to be trying to bounce off its 20 DMA & I'm looking for some follow-through, like a close above Friday's (Feb 22nd) high.
A nice set of signals on this today -- Bollinger Band Squeeze + Upper Band Touch, Expansion Breakout and a Pocket Pivot. Looks like it's ready to complete the cycle of range expansion to contraction back to expansion.
Just one of many huge "under the radar" (of most people) gainers today. I encourage you to run the "Expansion Breakout" and/or "Percentage Gainers" scan today and see some of the charts. There's a ton of strength in this market right now. check out Z, ACIA, TTD, OLED, IQ, ROKU, etc.
A bad earnings reaction earlier this week but it looks like $110 and/or the 20 DMA are becoming support.
A huge breakout today to about a 10-year high. Many thought this company was dead after smartphones and smart watches came on the scene but they've mounted an impressive comeback. Not my style to chase it here, above the upper Bollinger Band but it's going on a watchlist.
A major breakout on this today as it closed at a new all-time high on 6x normal volume. Not sure I'd chase it here but it's definitely going (back) on one of my watchlists.
You'll definitely want to pay attention to the 50-day moving averages for the major indices over the next couple of days. SPY, DIA, QQQ and VTI (The Wilshire 5,000 ETF) fell below and then rebounded back over their 50 DMAs today. Bulls will *really* want those important levels to hold. If they break it could get ugly again real quick.
Another "Calm After Storm", plus it's showing some bullish pullback setups. Beware the declining 200 DMA just a couple of points above though.
The "Calm After Storm" is always the first scan I check each day and that's where I found OLLI. It had a pop (the storm) after updating their guidance on the 11th. It's been consolidating since then. I'll be looking to get long if it can clear its 200 & 50-day moving averages, which it's been struggling with.
We've had a pretty good snapback rally for the market since the Christmas Eve debacle. QQQ is about 12% higher than its close on December 24th. As always, the question is what's next. I see that stochastic (14, 3, 3) for QQQ hit overbought levels today. It along with the other indices (and index ETFs) are closing in on their 50-day moving averages. Those moving average lines are sloping downward pretty steeply, so they *should* provide some resistance.
Interesting, there are a few emerging market ETFs on the Expansion Breakout scan today.
Yet another note about the market in general. Today the S&P 500, Russell 2000 and Wilshire 5000 made new 52-week closing lows. There's almost nothing but red on the General Market Overview page and the % of stocks above their 50-day moving averages sits at 14. So we're in full "everything is terrible" mode! It's almost like the market is trying to look as bad as possible in time for the Federal Reserve meeting in a couple of days. For bull-only folks (those who don't short sell), it's a good time to prune your watchlists and add those stocks that you'd like to buy once the market firms up. We may be primed for a short-term relief rally / oversold bounce. So that could be a good chance for some quick trades and/or to lighten up on some longs. It'll be interesting to see how the market reacts to whatever the Fed days & does this week.
Another note about the Trend Table for the indices. My last note pointed out how it was all red and I thought we had to get "some kind of bounce". Well that was almost *the* bottom. Today a lot of that red flipped to green as a few indices rose above their 50 and/or 200-day moving averages. So the picture is a lot prettier (if you're a bull). But I'll also note that that trend table is almost all green now, so if you believe in mean reversion, expect to see some red or yellow creep in, most likely in the short-term trends.
I just wanted to note the relatively rate occurrence of a completely red index trend table on the General Market Overview page. Just like I become a nervous bull when that table is all green, I'm a nervous bear with it all red. *Some kind of bounce* wouldn't surprise me here -- whether it sticks and doesn't roll over again is a whole different matter.
I like the "Calm After Storm" and hammer(-like) candlestick made today. This has now more than filled its huge post-earnings gap from last week and is trying to bounce off its 200-day moving average.
This is more a broad market comment than a QQQ note. It's obviously been a rough week for the bulls. Today was the worst single day percentage loss for the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) in 7 years. It's now perched just above its 200-day moving average. At times like these I like to look at the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages, which is plotted on the "General Market Overview" page. The market is in oversold territory when that percentage drops below 25 (or so). It's at 20.59 today, just a hair above where it and the market bottomed in February. So I view that as a sign that the market is likely to snap back soon. Note that this is the same indicator I mentioned in my October 2nd IWM note, when I wrote about the poor breadth of the market. Rallies on poor breadth never matter until they do!
The General Market Overview page told me that there were a lot more Bullish Engulfing patterns today than normal. This is my favorite of the bunch -- 50 DMA support, filled its gap from a month ago, oversold stochastic, Pocket Pivot and it's at the lower Bollinger Band