Trader Mike's Notes

  • QQQ - PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1


    We've had a pretty good snapback rally for the market since the Christmas Eve debacle. QQQ is about 12% higher than its close on December 24th. As always, the question is what's next. I see that stochastic (14, 3, 3) for QQQ hit overbought levels today. It along with the other indices (and index ETFs) are closing in on their 50-day moving averages. Those moving average lines are sloping downward pretty steeply, so they *should* provide some resistance.

  • EMLC - Market Vectors Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF

    Interesting, there are a few emerging market ETFs on the Expansion Breakout scan today.

  • SPY - SPDR S&P 500


    Yet another note about the market in general. Today the S&P 500, Russell 2000 and Wilshire 5000 made new 52-week closing lows. There's almost nothing but red on the General Market Overview page and the % of stocks above their 50-day moving averages sits at 14. So we're in full "everything is terrible" mode! It's almost like the market is trying to look as bad as possible in time for the Federal Reserve meeting in a couple of days. For bull-only folks (those who don't short sell), it's a good time to prune your watchlists and add those stocks that you'd like to buy once the market firms up. We may be primed for a short-term relief rally / oversold bounce. So that could be a good chance for some quick trades and/or to lighten up on some longs. It'll be interesting to see how the market reacts to whatever the Fed days & does this week.

  • SPY - SPDR S&P 500


    Another note about the Trend Table for the indices. My last note pointed out how it was all red and I thought we had to get "some kind of bounce". Well that was almost *the* bottom. Today a lot of that red flipped to green as a few indices rose above their 50 and/or 200-day moving averages. So the picture is a lot prettier (if you're a bull). But I'll also note that that trend table is almost all green now, so if you believe in mean reversion, expect to see some red or yellow creep in, most likely in the short-term trends.

  • SPY - SPDR S&P 500


    I just wanted to note the relatively rate occurrence of a completely red index trend table on the General Market Overview page. Just like I become a nervous bull when that table is all green, I'm a nervous bear with it all red. *Some kind of bounce* wouldn't surprise me here -- whether it sticks and doesn't roll over again is a whole different matter.

  • NFLX - Netflix, Inc.

    I like the "Calm After Storm" and hammer(-like) candlestick made today. This has now more than filled its huge post-earnings gap from last week and is trying to bounce off its 200-day moving average.

  • QQQ - PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1


    This is more a broad market comment than a QQQ note. It's obviously been a rough week for the bulls. Today was the worst single day percentage loss for the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) in 7 years. It's now perched just above its 200-day moving average. At times like these I like to look at the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages, which is plotted on the "General Market Overview" page. The market is in oversold territory when that percentage drops below 25 (or so). It's at 20.59 today, just a hair above where it and the market bottomed in February. So I view that as a sign that the market is likely to snap back soon. Note that this is the same indicator I mentioned in my October 2nd IWM note, when I wrote about the poor breadth of the market. Rallies on poor breadth never matter until they do!

  • FIVE - Five Below, Inc.

    The General Market Overview page told me that there were a lot more Bullish Engulfing patterns today than normal. This is my favorite of the bunch -- 50 DMA support, filled its gap from a month ago, oversold stochastic, Pocket Pivot and it's at the lower Bollinger Band

  • ISRG - Intuitive Surgical, Inc.

    You know the selling is serious -- and maybe near an end(?) -- when the mighty ISRG gets hit!

  • COUP - Coupa Software Incorporated

    and another one from the "Strong but Oversold" scan.

  • ALRM - Holdings, Inc.

    another one from the "Strong but Oversold" scan. It's closing in on that gap up from August, which *should* be support.

  • OKTA - Okta, Inc.

    One from the "Strong but Oversold" scan (A great one to look at at junctures like the current one.) -- Definitely a mixed technical picture, as seen by the recent signals. I do like that it closed its earnings gap from September and found a bit of support there today.

  • CYBR - CyberArk Software Ltd.

    I like the gap fill here. Let's see if it can bounce now.

  • CTRL - Control4 Corporation

    Double top or a simple pullback to the 50-day moving average???

  • IWM - iShares Russell 2000 ETF


    Small cap stocks aren't looking so hot these days! The % of stocks above their 50-day moving averages is only at 38%. Pretty poor breadth as the major indices hover right near all-time highs. Something to keep an eye on.

  • TTD - The Trade Desk, Inc.


    A rare pullback in TTD. Looks like it want to test its 50-day moving average.

  • ALDX - Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc.

    I like the "Calm After Storm" plus "!,2,3 Pullback" combo on this stock. They have a secondary stock offering coming though so we've got to see how the market handles those additional shares.

  • CATM - Cardtronics, Inc.

    It's been a wild ride in this since it reported earnings in August. The big drop late last week had me concerned that the stock had broken. But there's potential for it to find support in this area -- it's near its 50 day moving average and the mid-August support zone around $30.

  • NKTR - Nektar Therapeutics

    I have mixed feeling about this chart. In the shorter term, I like the pullback to the 50 DMA and its oversold stochastic reading. However, I don't like the overhead resistance the longer term chart reveals. It's under its 200-day moving average (around 72 at the moment) and it's got that huge gap down in early June. So there are trapped longs looking to sell when they reach break-even again. If I were to trade this, I'd take a shot here with a tight stop and the 200 DMA as my initial target.

  • FNKO - Funko, Inc.

    It's been quite the ride in FNKO of late. This September slide has brought it all the way back under its 50-day moving average (by a hair). There's also a bit of support around $20 from mid-August. It's stochastic reading hit oversold today, so it's primed for a bounce here. It'll be interesting to see if this can catch a bid and get back above its 50 DMA.