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March Vehicle Sales Forecast: 15.6 million SAAR, Up 5% YoY
about 2 months ago by Calculated Risk @ Calculated Risk

From WardsAuto: March U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Tracking a Steady Course with Potential Upside (pay content).  Brief excerpt:If the March forecast holds firm, the first quarter will total a 15.5 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate, down from Q4-2023’s 15.7 million but up from like-2023’s 15.0 million. However, the forecasted steady climb in inventory should put sales in good stead to rise above 16-million-unit annualized rates for most of the remainder of 2024. emphasis added<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_ny18c7aqj3fKpdlNntIEojDDeaeUWe6GguQt19h-k7uz63I6fKvnMFccyGcY0ABuvUUvJkkk4rVUqzJd-_kfpcYvTrfXm6P2J-bWUjit3qGwI6OBZV7VzllJGn9_t18-i6PP14IFJui2NcZm4m6ihRS0UCbucHv6S4JcGuo0eUoKLHCT_CFY/s969/VSForecastMar2024.PNG" style="margin-l...

Monday links: doing new things
about 2 months ago by abnormalreturns @ Abnormal Returns

Learn to sit on your hands if you’re taking winners to soon
about 2 months ago by Michael Martin @ MartinKronicle

Watch this video on YouTube There’s no doubt that taking winners is probably the hardest trade where you’re going to get in, you can automatically set your protective stop. That’s the easy part. But then what happens when you start making money? One of the most requested questions is this, where do I take my […]The post Learn to sit on your hands if you’re taking winners to soon first appeared on MartinKronicle.The post Learn to sit on your hands if you’re taking winners to soon appeared first on MartinKronicle.

[Options] There Could Be a Lot of Juice in This Squeeze
about 2 months ago by Sean McLaughlin @ All Star Charts

We’re getting into Squeeze Season. The stock market (as measured by the indexes) continues to trek higher, speculative fervor keeps building (as measured by what’s happening in crypto), and these forces are combining to make it a dangerous environment to be caught short in. And if you’re short a name that already has a high […] The post [Options] There Could Be a Lot of Juice in This Squeeze appeared first on All Star Charts.

ALL ASC

Tracking Error is a Feature, Not a Bug
about 2 months ago by Larry Swedroe - via Alpha Architect Blog @ IBKR Traders’ Insight

Recency bias is the tendency to overweight recent events/trends and ignore long-term evidence.

Why Do We Need Rate Cuts?
about 2 months ago by Steve Sosnick @ IBKR Traders’ Insight

Ask yourself this question: Why exactly do we need rate cuts if all manner of risk assets are rallying, and while credit spreads and credit default swaps show no signs of overt stress– especially if the FOMC now anticipates 2.1% real GDP growth for 2024? And it's important to keep this in mind: when Powell says "maybe", investors hear "yes."

New Home Sales Slip as Investors Reexamine Rate Cuts: Mar. 25, 2024
about 2 months ago by Jose Torres @ IBKR Traders’ Insight

Markets are taking a breather this morning as Beijing bans certain US semiconductors from use in government computers and servers

IBKR’s Hottest Shorts as of 03/21/2024
about 2 months ago by IBKR Securities Lending Desk @ IBKR Traders’ Insight

IBKR's hottest shorts as of March 21, 2024: Largest Short Values, Most Requested Stocks and ETFs, Highest Borrows Fees.

New Home Sales at 662,000 Annual Rate in February; Median New Home Price is Down 19% from the Peak
about 2 months ago by Calculated Risk @ Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales at 662,000 Annual Rate in February Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 662 thousand. The previous three months were revised up slightly. ... <img alt="New Home Sales 2023 2024" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAKrddUf0Edax03MRxtaLlBGCsNkUqTDNJXKlUkdIUUHAEZ5bMYRhwkYpudPUARhRqchcPDj...

Chart Advisor: USD Making New Rules
about 2 months ago by Contributor Author @ IBKR Traders’ Insight

Generally, when we had a weak dollar, which was evidenced by an increase in the commodity market, this translated into something negative for the stock market and bond prices. Conversely, a rise in the dollar was seen as positive for US stocks and bonds.

CME GOLD

CEO Sentiment is Slowly Improving in 2024
about 2 months ago by Christine Short @ IBKR Traders’ Insight

After a volatile 2023, CEO confidence seems to be rebounding in 2024.

Economic Update: March 25, 2024
about 2 months ago by Contributor Author @ IBKR Traders’ Insight

Weekly Economic Update for the week of March 25, 2024: growth, jobs, profits, inflation, rates, risks, and investment themes.

New Home Sales at 662,000 Annual Rate in February
about 2 months ago by Calculated Risk @ Calculated Risk

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 662 thousand. The previous three months were revised up slightly. Sales of new single‐family houses in February 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 662,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.3 percent below the revised January rate of 664,000, but is 5.9 percent above the February 2023 estimate of 625,000. emphasis added <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGEg6KEIoHryJzZ_Ptay0Ngb1v2Yrp5soh7iayGAZzw-aUXov3m7rwaOwWPzvAgMnYp4QyOFGzIBMWsF6zmULwF7xu8Ubzh_cwicvMG2buWIUGdgEJLt8OPns2JTVthS6CDHukYwKAyyX599SyPLTCzLU4XlCmeqWMt5z7cCsZt_KmIwfbVehI/s1076/NHSFeb2024.PNG" style="m...

Weekly Market Recap: March 25, 2024
about 2 months ago by Contributor Author @ IBKR Traders’ Insight

In an environment of higher rates and return-to-trend growth, quality will be key, particularly as valuations remain stretched and earnings estimates are downgraded.

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 3/25/24
about 2 months ago by Sean McLaughlin @ All Star Charts

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review: New position in ARKK today. No adjustments are needed today. Exited XLK at profit target. Current status of open campaigns. Let’s dig in! The post [Options P2P] Daily Digest 3/25/24 appeared first on All Star Charts.

Adviser links: better Medicare coverage
about 2 months ago by abnormalreturns @ Abnormal Returns

Mondays are all about financial adviser-related links here at Abnormal Returns. You can check out last week’s links including a look at...

The Real Spiel with Ryan & Kurt – Softs: Overlooked & Misunderstood
about 2 months ago by Contributor Author @ IBKR Traders’ Insight

Softs are an often overlooked and misunderstood part of the commodities market. This group includes commodities like cocoa, cotton, coffee and sugar. Why should investors pay attention to softs?

Technical Analysis Heading Into Monday’s Open: March 25, 2024
about 2 months ago by Dan Gramza @ IBKR Traders’ Insight

Dan Gramza takes a look at some key charts heading into today’s (March 25, 2024) open, including stock indices, currencies, and commodities.