Trader Mike's Notes

These notes are here primarily to show my process and how I use the scans to find setups. This is NOT an attempt to be a stock picking service! I want people to use the site's extensive functionality to find their own setups which match their trading plans, strategies & risk tolerances.
QQQ - PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1
QQQ

Obviously this isn't a pretty picture -- if you're a bull. There was some hope that QQQ would be able to regain its 50-day moving average at the end of last week. Those hopes were dashed by Monday's gap down. Note that QQQ has gapped open (up or down) every day this week. That's a sign of a news-driven and/or skittish market. At this point the bulls must just be hoping to be saved by peace & prosperity breaking out over the long weekend. :-)

It will be interesting to see where the market can find support. QQQ is right at a bit of technical support from the late March lows but after that I don't see much support until the 165 area.

IWM - iShares Russell 2000 ETF
IWM

I mentioned the weakness in small caps and the poor market breadth in my April 17th note. Well the breadth is even worse now as the % of stocks above their 50-day moving averages has slid to 33% (see the General Market Overview page). IWM has been under its 200-day moving average for 9 sessions now and it's on the verge of taking out its March low.

When you zoom out on the daily chart and add a 200 DMA, it makes the December - January rally look like nothing more than a bear market rally which was mostly capped by the 200 DMA. Back in early spring I was wondering which part of the market was showing the *truth* -- small caps or the larger cap indices. It's looking like it was the small caps. There's not much to like about the IWM chart at this point if you're a bull!

YETI - YETI Holdings, Inc.

This relatively recent IPO has had a great run. Its IPO lockup recently expired and they did a secondary last week to let some of the locked-up folks sell. Stochastic is oversold and it looks like it has good support at 27. Another one for my "When the Market Turns" watchlist.

AKAM - Akamai Technologies, Inc.

One for my "When the Market Turns" watchlist... I've been stalking this since it reported earnings the end of last month. It's now got oversold stochastic and looks like it's making a soft landing on its 50-day moving average.

SPY - SPDR S&P 500
SPY

Obviously things are getting ugly right now. It's tough for me to care much about the technicals when the US - China trade war is driving the action. Nevertheless, I am paying attention to technicals.
In my last note from a few weeks ago I wrote about how I didn't like the breadth of the run to new highs in the indices. The S&p is down about 3% since then and QQQ is down ~ 5%. Based on the indicators I track we're still not quite at oversold levels. Stochastic (14, 3, 3) is getting close to oversold. The other oversold indicator I like to track (see the General Market Overview page) is the % of stocks above their 50-day moving averages. That dropped significantly today to 36% as SPY, QQQ, IWM along with ~1,400 stocks broke their 50 DMAs. So we're within a stone's throw of the low 20 percents, where bottoms often start to form.
I've got my eyes on some obvious support levels -- the March 25th low (QQQ is right there now) and March 8th low -- but, again, I'm not banking on technicals to bring us out of this tailspin. I think we're gonna need some significant news on the trade war front.