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NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increase in October, Down 0.6% Year-over-year
about 1 year ago by Bill McBride @ Calculated Risk

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Strengthen 3.5 Percent in OctoberPending home sales rebounded strongly in October following three straight months of diminishing activity, but still continued their recent slide of falling behind year ago levels, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All major regions except for the West saw an increase in contract signings last month.The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 3.5 percent to 109.3 in October from a downwardly revised 105.6 in September. The index is now at its highest reading since June (110.0), but is still 0.6 percent below a year ago. ...The PHSI in the Northeast inched forward 0.5 percent to 95.0 in October, but is still 1.9 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest the index increased 2.8 percent to 105.8 in October,...

What Are You Going To Do With The Money?
about 1 year ago by Jeff Carter @ Points and Figures

This is a question that isn’t considered often enough.  Investors ought to really think about the answer before they ask it.  It’s a critical question that an entrepreneur needs to answer. One thing we know in our line of business …

152: A beginner’s foray into (part-time) systematic trading w/ Kory Hoang
about 1 year ago by Aaron Fifield @ Chat With Traders

Q3 GDP Revised up to 3.3% Annual Rate
about 1 year ago by Bill McBride @ Calculated Risk

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2017 (Second Estimate)Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the third quarter of 2017, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.0 percent. With this second estimate for the third quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and private inventory investment were revised up from the prior estimate ...emphasis addedHere is a <a href="https://www...

Two Ways Frequent Trading Reverses Profitability
about 1 year ago by Michael Martin @ MartinKronicle

Risk is an asset class unto itself - don't play Hot Potato inside your portfolio. When you day trade, you are churning your own account. Staying in good trades longer frees up time so that you can do more research, read, or go have fun doing whatever gives you pleasure.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
about 1 year ago by Bill McBride @ Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications decreased 3.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 24, 2017. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday.... The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous week to its lowest level since January 2017. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier to its highest level since September 2017. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 32 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago. ...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($424,100 or less) remained unchanged from the w...

Wall Street Breakfast: Last Show For Janet Yellen
about 1 year ago by SA Wall St. Breakfast


DHUnplugged #384: A Very Bitcoin Christmas
about 1 year ago by The Disciplined Investor (The Discipl... @ The Disciplined Investor

All news leads to Bitcoin. As the cryptocurrency flies toward the $10k mark, many are asking how high can this go? North Korea is at it again, launching an ICBM into the Sea of Japan. Markets are unfaszd. Amazon has taken over the world and that has Jeff Bezos now worth over $100 billion. An […]

Who Do You Trust?… and Live Light and Mobile
about 1 year ago by Howard Lindzon @ Howard Lindzon

There is a saying that no bell rings at the top of the market or the bottom of the market. I say having Josh Brown and I do a Bitcoin panel to close out the 1,400 person sold out Coindesk crypto event in New York City is the loudest bell in the history of bells. How historic is this price move in Bitcoin? While you were wondering why Bitcoins are trading above $10,000… Equifax is a fake company with no product and it’s stock price is higher than the start of the year. Continue reading Who Do You Trust?… and Live Light and Mobile at Howard Lindzon.

A Cautionary Signal After Today's Strong Gain
about 1 year ago by Urban Carmel @ Fat Pitch

Summary:  US indices closed at new all time highs on Tuesday. The gain was so strong that SPX closed 25% above its Bollinger Band width. This is rare. There have been only 6 similar instances since 2003. None marked an exact short-term top in the market, but all preceded a fairly significant drawdown in the week(s) ahead. Risk-reward over this period was very poor.There are a host of countervailing reasons to expect equities to end the year higher. This is only one data point, and the sample size is small. Nonetheless, a heads up is warranted.In an addendum, we look at consecutive opens and closes above the upper Bollinger Band (there were 3 in a row this week). The message is the same: when SPY was not breaking out of a base, these instances have often been followed by at least temporary buyer exhaustion.* * *Today, SPX, COMPQ, NDX, NYSE, DJIA and RUT all made new all time highs (ATHs).  The dom...

Sorry, Roku Is No Netflix
about 1 year ago by SA IPO Analysis


Wednesday: GDP, Pending Home Sales, Fed Chair Yellen
about 1 year ago by Bill McBride @ Calculated Risk

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2017 (Second estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.3% annualized in Q3, up from 3.0% in the advance report.• At 10:00 AM, Testimony, Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Economic Outlook, Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress• Also at 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for October. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in the index.

Large Caps (Financials) Make The Jump Against Tech
about 1 year ago by (Declan Fallon) @ Fallond Picks

In the end, it wasn't Tech to surprise with an acceleration past its bullish rising channel but the S&P and Dow with fresh breakouts.A confluence of positive data fueled the advance in Large Caps along with a dollop of short covering.  Tuesday's action ranks as a breakout in this indices and brings into play new support levels should profit-takers come in to take advantage of the gains.  The only downside for the S&P was the continued downtrend in relative performance against Small Caps - suggesting the real money is flowing into more speculative issues.<a href="

Volatility May Feel More Painful the Next Time Around
about 1 year ago by Jake @ EconomPicData

Stock and bond markets have been extraordinarily quiet since February 2016 lows. How quiet? A 60/40 portfolio consisting of the S&P 500 and the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index has a 12-month standard deviation of (wait for it)… 2.2% ending October 2017. This is the lowest period of volatility since the inception of the aggregate bond index back in 1976.My own behavior has been impacted by just how boring markets have been, as I’ve slowly seen my own risk tolerance ramp up. In ad...

Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: More Solid House Price Gains in October
about 1 year ago by Bill McBride @ Calculated Risk

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for September were released this morning. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.From Svenja Gudell at Zillow: Case-Shiller September Results and October Forecast: Underbuilding Continues to Take a TollThe primary Case-Shiller indices paint a picture of a national housing market that’s largely stable and maybe even a bit boring from 50,000 feet, with home prices growing at roughly the same pace for the past year or more.The U.S. National Index for September showed an annual increase in home prices of 6.2 percent. The month-over-month increase from August was 0.7 percent.The 10-city composite gained 5.7 percent annually and 0.6 perc...